Nvidia is ‘No longer a graphics company’

Do a Google search for "Ati 9700 Pro reviews". Then sit back and prepare to be astonished that someone unbelievably produced an "Nvidia Killer".
I owned one :). It was a good card, and nVidia's 5 series FX cards were bad. However, as good as it was, it wasn't "complete different performance class" is was just superior. And, of course, nVidia had a better product with the 6th gen cards. I mean we saw it kind of happen again with the 480 and 5870, but again, it didn't kill nVidia.

The claim seems to be that these specalized nueral chips will jsut be so much better than nVidia it'll kick them out of the AI space. I am doubtful.
 
Dear gosh were the launch drivers disastrous on those. I returned mine and went 470 sli.
For sure they were. I didn't return mine, but I did end up getting a 580 (or was it 570, can't remember) when it came out because damn.
 
For sure they were. I didn't return mine, but I did end up getting a 580 (or was it 570, can't remember) when it came out because damn.
My memory's faulty... googled myself and I sold it, not returned :eek:. I made a thread here about the driver glitches I was having, it was crazy.
 
100%, this is all just food for press. When you get that big you always have to have people talking about something about your company.
and for investors. Whether it be the big holders, whom they actually answer to. Or individuals, whom may FOMO their way into buying some shares, now.
 
And let’s face it, Nvidia faces serious competition on the AI front from a number of other companies who are designing bespoke hardware for AI acceleration.

Nvidia is not at all facing that level of competition from AMD or Intel on the consumer or workstation graphics front.
Intel is doing well at the bottom, AMD is offering some resistance in the middle, but Nvidia just needs to do a slight price correction which is 100% within their capabilities and they continue to dominate the consumer GPU space top to bottom with at best a paper thin resistance.
I wouldn't call it serious competition. Competition, but not too serious. NV holds a huge lead and doesn't appear to be complacent as far as I can tell. Could they falter, sure. At this moment they are the market leader for the foreseeable future.
 
I wouldn't call it serious competition. Competition, but not too serious. NV holds a huge lead and doesn't appear to be complacent as far as I can tell. Could they falter, sure. At this moment they are the market leader for the foreseeable future.
This has been talked about in other thread topics. But it also relates to "what do AI researches need to continue to do AI development."
And I, and quite a few others think that the cost of buying into nVdia at the rate that data centers are is not only unsustainable, but that groups are buying more than they need out of the belief of constrained availability. This is commonly referred to the AI bubble. Not that AI or development will cease to exist, but rather than the rate companies are buying and for what reasons is mostly because AI is a hot new buzzword and not because each of these companies has a plan for what to do with AI. So in short they're essentially buying stuff they don't need or at the very least in quantities that they don't need.

Similar to crypto, there is a huge amount of money potential to just build purpose built ASIC's once it is determined which functions are necessary for more development rather than using a programmable GPU which can do so many other functions but is also incredibly expensive. Companies like Amazon that already produce their own server chips will easily make that transition over, and indeed in that sense they have already cut out Intel and AMD. And other companies that don't want to be forced down nVidia's pipe (Cuda, licensing, etc), pay nVidia's prices, or suffer vendor lock in will look for alternatives.

Also there is the simple matter of price. nVidia's H100 costs nearly $40k. If anyone produces a product that can even do 50% what it does for 25% of the price, there will be customers that will funnel off of nVidia.
 
I wouldn't call it serious competition. Competition, but not too serious. NV holds a huge lead and doesn't appear to be complacent as far as I can tell. Could they falter, sure. At this moment they are the market leader for the foreseeable future.
This enters the idea of general-purpose AIs vs research AIs like the Facebook LLM and their dedicated accelerators are inferior in every measurable way to the Nvidia offerings, but they are 1/5'th the price, and while completely proprietary they are also not a source of any measurable bottleneck.
Amazon and Google are in similar places with their hardware.
If a pickup will do, why bring the dump truck?
 
Also there is the simple matter of price. nVidia's H100 costs nearly $40k. If anyone produces a product that can even do 50% what it does for 25% of the price, there will be customers that will funnel off of nVidia.
I'm not so sure that is true. Thing with the AI startups. There is so much money flying around cause everyone knows its an arms race.

That is like saying if the US could have got to the moon for 1/3 the price by 1977 instead... they would have done it. Of course they would not have taken that deal cause the Russians would have got there first.

AI... should someone get to the holy grail general intelligence they win. That is the problem for us gamers right now. The AI rush at the high end isn't just about Microsoft getting a better chat bot... or some other company building a tool to make 10s high end company logos from a doodle. The big money in the field feel there is no second place finish. No one uses Yahoo search... even Bing struggles cause Google is Google. Second place is not an option even if the less you spend the more you save. ;)
 
I'm not so sure that is true. Thing with the AI startups. There is so much money flying around cause everyone knows its an arms race.

That is like saying if the US could have got to the moon for 1/3 the price by 1977 instead... they would have done it. Of course they would not have taken that deal cause the Russians would have got there first.
The issue with your point here is that you first have to express what is the goal of all of these various companies buying H100 chips is.

In order for your moon analogy to work, they'd all have to have the exact same goal. And they don't. The goal as an example isn't to make general purpose AI. At least for a majority of the companies buying into H100's. Tesla as an example is amongst the top 10 companies that bought H100's. And neither Tesla or Elon Musk are interested in doing development for general purpose AI. I can say without even looking that the sort of development Tesla is doing has nothing to do with what Meta is doing.

So beat who, to do what?
AI... should someone get to the holy grail general intelligence they win. That is the problem for us gamers right now. The AI rush at the high end isn't just about Microsoft getting a better chat bot... or some other company building a tool to make 10s high end company logos from a doodle. The big money in the field feel there is no second place finish. No one uses Yahoo search... even Bing struggles cause Google is Google. Second place is not an option even if the less you spend the more you save. ;)
Again, beat who to do what? The whole point of my post was discussing that the direct issue is that a lot of people bought into AI and they don't know why they did it. Just like the .com bust, a bunch of companies just made websites with no real purpose or point and no real way of generating money through their site.

Similarly a lot of companies are getting into AI dev with no clear reason why they're trying to develop something for AI and no clear way of making any money through AI development. So the companies that are actually trying to do something with AI development also don't likely need something nearly as fast or as expensive as H100.

And this also doesn't get around the fact that a majority of the top 10 companies that have invested into H100 are developing their own AI chips, much for all the reasons I said.
 
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Or you could take the Elezier Yudowski approach.

Mandate tracking of all GPU's. Mandate military strikes on every location they are amassed in large enough numbers to be used for AI training, regardless of which jurisdiction they are in, ensuring the destruction of every data center where AI training takes place.
Like a "Dual Use" export control on GPU's like similar export controls on Thermal Cameras and (Maybe?) Drones?

IMO some of you guys should try trading entire Stock Indexes (NASDAQ ETF's) before nut hugging on Nvidia too hard and putting too much money into Nvidia. I'm looking at ETF's that have exposure to Government Treasuries/Bonds (Fixed income) and ETF's for Gold or Silver.
It looks like people are slowly starting to move their money out of the NASDAQ and into safer fixed income or precious metals.
Don't just look at a single company without looking at the bigger picture. Sure, you can buy Nvidia and be in it for the long run. You might get in at an even better price if you can resist and hold off on buying Nvidia right now, by having some patience.

Also, I look at publicly disclosed Insider trading - you'll notice a lot of CEO's and Directors are selling. Lots of selling seen in big hype companies like Coinbase. Mark Zuckerberg just sold off tons of META shares multiple times this month. Oh... and... Nvidia VIP's are also selling. So this Nvidia "news" is an attempt to pump up the stock a few more dollars so the big VIP's can sell on your face. Check the list below to see what I mean. I bet they are planning on selling even more Nvidia shares if people continue to buy into the hype. Hype is the worst time to get in... nobody is going to do your homework for you. These Nvidia VIP's know this announcement is nonsense, but they can't hide their publicly released trades.

I don't give a shit about the whole "AI" buzzword. How many people lost out when they bought Tesla at $1000? But at the time, Tesla was HUGE! "They're too big to fail!". I don't know how people can be so confident to buy Nvidia right now without waiting for a good pullback. This Nvidia announcement is kinda like when Elon Musk started spewing nonsense on Twitter, trolling Senator Karen (Elizabeth Warren), or when Mark Zuckerberg started to hype up VR. When Mark Zuckerberg hyped up VR, everyone here talked shit about that idea, so... you might see some analogy I'm trying to make with Nvidia this time.

In 2020, 2021, 2022.. I went long on some stocks, but I think I made the biggest returns trading VIX and Inverse Index ETF's (SQQQ). Yes, I saw what I believed to be a great time to be predicting that all tech stocks would fall, and I specifically traded how I wanted to. Taking advantage of people who were way too cocky and overconfident and waited for them to panic sell. I did it across multiple short term trades in just 5 months until the VIX cooled off. It was the best I ever did (+47% in just 5 months). I did this when people of Reddit Wall Street bets were saying "guys the market is going to move higher, they always say its going to crash, no its not". I don't want markets to crash though... I want to have the most unpopular opinion that wins in the end. In fact, I want as many people on the wrong side of the trade to get as many people to start panic selling that maximizes the price range for VIX and Short/Inverse leveraged Index ETF's.

I WANT people to still be bullish on Nvidia today, so they can tap out tomorrow. Without their "help", there is no big volume.

https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue


1701317897833.png


Also, this market "rally" really happened in the premarket several times this month - very annoying. Tons of capital pumped into stocks or maybe the Futures, but it happened all at the same time "by coincidence" and leaving no real volume during market hours. Something just doesn't look right. Doesn't this rally seem kinda scripted?
 
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Apple didn't stop making Laptops and PC's. Witness the M3 Ultra!

But they're a phone company now. With a lil bitty PC department.


nVidia will keep making the most kick as gfx cards, but it will be a tiny department reusing stuff developed for phones. Datacenters.
 
The issue with your point here is that you first have to express what is the goal of all of these various companies buying H100 chips is.

In order for your moon analogy to work, they'd all have to have the exact same goal. And they don't. The goal as an example isn't to make general purpose AI. At least for a majority of the companies buying into H100's. Tesla as an example is amongst the top 10 companies that bought H100's. And neither Tesla or Elon Musk are interested in doing development for general purpose AI. I can say without even looking that the sort of development Tesla is doing has nothing to do with what Meta is doing.
I believe the same logic applies however. Tesla is not the only company attempting to create a self driving car. I don't believe coming in second in that race is seen as an option by anyone in the race either.

My no second place point is true in every software field.

The first company to build manufacturing robots that can be trained up in an afternoon and just work... win. Overnight that company wins every contract... they believe it. In every sector I can think of where AI is being explored. The first company that has a super AI model to roll out is going to become the dominant market leader. (or at least that is how they all see it)

They have good reason to believe that. I can't think of one example of a second place anything being successful in tech, at least not without spending even more money (and often breaking a few laws) to force it to happen. You can think of examples like MS word. Ok they where not the first in the market... the first company to deliver was the standard. MS was only able to make word what it became by spending a ton of money and bending more then a few laws to force the first company to the goal out. Google is the prime example of getting there first. Prior to google there where more then a few very good for the time curated search engines... Google built an algorithm which sucked for a long time until it didn't. Once they got that right it was game over for everyone else. Essentially everyone involved with AI at this point is looking at the google example and pushing hard. First place wins they all believe it.
 
Jensen has always been a prick and won't stop today. He is the quintessential capitalist. While that is not a bad thing in and of itself, his company is #1 and we aren't. AMD would do the same thing if it could, but can't, so we get treated a bit better as consumers. I personally am looking forward to my next build not featuring a Geforce card.

Ford built tanks, and Jeeps (yep), in WW2. GM built machine guns during Vietnam and the 80s. However they didin't morph into a baby Lockheeds. They realized that their history and core products were still cars.

Nvidia will sell us their scraps that aren't good enough for datacenters.

I personally don't like being someone's charity case for scraps. AMD isn't there yet, thankfully.
 
Jensen has always been a prick and won't stop today. He is the quintessential capitalist. While that is not a bad thing in and of itself, his company is #1 and we aren't. AMD would do the same thing if it could, but can't, so we get treated a bit better as consumers. I personally am looking forward to my next build not featuring a Geforce card.

Ford built tanks, and Jeeps (yep), in WW2. GM built machine guns during Vietnam and the 80s. However they didin't morph into a baby Lockheeds. They realized that their history and core products were still cars.

Nvidia will sell us their scraps that aren't good enough for datacenters.

I personally don't like being someone's charity case for scraps. AMD isn't there yet, thankfully.
As much of a prick he is, you have to respect him. This's a madddd mann filled with passionate lust and undying thirst for building empires. He won't stop at nothing until the goal is completed. That's the kind of person I wanted to work with achieving domination and building a legacy. https://videocardz.com/newz/jensen-huang-wants-to-lead-nvidia-for-another-30-to-40-years
 
As much of a prick he is, you have to respect him. This's a madddd mann filled with passionate lust and undying thirst for building empires. He won't stop at nothing until the goal is completed. That's the kind of person I wanted to work with achieving domination and building a legacy. https://videocardz.com/newz/jensen-huang-wants-to-lead-nvidia-for-another-30-to-40-years
Problem is he has a psychosis. I would agree if you were describing Elon Musk. But Jensen, just a workaholic.
 
As much of a prick he is, you have to respect him. This's a madddd mann filled with passionate lust and undying thirst for building empires. He won't stop at nothing until the goal is completed. That's the kind of person I wanted to work with achieving domination and building a legacy. https://videocardz.com/newz/jensen-huang-wants-to-lead-nvidia-for-another-30-to-40-years

Not really, Steve Jobs turned Apple into a huge company, but he was a huge prick and I had no respect for him either. Jensen is all about him and that is fine, but I am no fan of his. You will also find people like this are not the ones you wanted to work with, Steve Jobs was known to fire people if he didn't like the answer they gave him. Heck he even ignored his own kids. Jensen is a little too ego driven for me, but there is also no denying he has built a successful company.
 
The crypto bubble burst, the deeplearning bubble will too.
Either that or the Machine will build us much better GPUs. Fully immersive type hardware... as long as the fluid in the tank is nice and warm it sounds present really. :)
 
Yep gamers will now get the second string parts from Nvidia. Maybe. If Intel ends up being real competition... or AMD actually releases some top tier stuff. Nvidia might just decide its not even worth putting out cast offs and secondary process silicon to actually compete. If there is even a slim possibility Nvidia looses a gaming crown Jensen will just say pull it imo. Better to exit king then be seen as inferior.

I imagine we get super versions of this gen. Then Nvidia is just going to skip next gen silicon in gaming cards. If they bother with gaming cards after that it will be their next chips "super" versions 1.5 years after it goes to data center... if that would keep NV at #1. If it won't keep Nvidia at #1 that silicon will just go to second string accelerators.... designed to fend off potential new cost competition in the AI market.

We better all cheer Intel now.
AMD doesn’t make top tier graphics cards? 7900 XTX beats the 4090 at some games, impossible for them to trade blows if they aren’t top tier. Not to mention AMD’s gpus are cheaper as well. Price to performance does matter.
 
Would it be particularly new the gamers getting second string parts.

Say Ampere, the gap between 826mm of TSMC 7 with 40gb of HBM2e vram with a 5120 bit bus and a 3090 (628 mm of Samsung 8 with 384 bits was already massive).
Lovelace quite similar, 814mm with 2000 GB/s vs 609mm with 1000 GB/s for top end gaming.

With first string party ready to pay $30k-$40k, of course.

Depending on the 3nm die size limit maybe the gap will get smaller (just with a gap in time between release) until chiplet work
 
Nvidia is now a trillion dollar company!...damn!...I wish I invested years ago
I had several hundred shares of nvda. Purchased them at $9 per share and sold at a little more than $27 per share in part to put down a downpayment on my current house. I wish I would have kept those.
 
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AMD doesn’t make top tier graphics cards? 7900 XTX beats the 4090 at some games, impossible for them to trade blows if they aren’t top tier. Not to mention AMD’s gpus are cheaper as well. Price to performance does matter.

Price is not as much of a consideration in "top teir" IMHO.

It's not completely irrelevant, but it certainly matters less.

Many would refuse to call any product that isn't competitive with all settings maxed (and that includes RT) as "top tier".

The 7900xtx really only starts trading blows with the 4090 if you start disabling many of those more modern features.

Don't get me wrong. I think they can be great cards, but the market has shifted. You don't NEED RT to make awesome looking games, but RT is much less time consuming for the developer than spending countless hours grinding out shadow maps, etc. and the result is that developers lean heavily on it.

In a way RT was more of a gift to developers than it was to gamers, as it reduced their work and thus costs. Of course Nvidia did what they always do best and tried to this break compatibility with any competitor rather than just out-compete them at raw performance.

The latest games look great with RT enabled, but once you disable RT they often look worse than 5 year old pre-RT titles because most developers just aren't putting the work in to make 100% raster look good anymore.

Unfortunately this makes competitive RT performance an absolute must, and while AMD has improved tremendously with the 7xxx series they have not yet reached parity with Nvidia by a huge margin.

That's why we see the 7900xtx perform worse than even the 4070:

Screenshot_20231130-131436.png


It may not seem fair that Nvidia decided move the goalposts just as AMD finally became competitive in high end GPU's again, and I'd agree with that, but now that it is here, it can't just be ignored.
 
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“Jensen sent out an email on Friday evening saying everything is going to deep learning, and that we were no longer a graphics company. By Monday morning, we were an AI company."
Go back a few years and I'm sure he said they're moving to a Crypto Metaverse. Nvidia is a company that moves towards fads, and right now it's AI. They're a graphics card company, when the AI fad fades. Either because people have their fill of AI, or because competitors caught up and flooded the market with cheap AI hardware. Nvidia never wants to go back to be a graphics company because literally everyone is making their own GPU's. Also because the past several years their growth was heavily tied to crypto, and going back to their roots means a sharp decline in revenue. The AI situation is so stupid that even OpenAI can't decide if they want to hire their CEO. Give it time, the AI market will crash and Nvidia will be once again a graphics company. At least until they find another niche to try and capitalize on.

View: https://youtu.be/w4eEWAgr2Lk?si=X-PHjutp0uKMk7Sy
 
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Go back a few years and I'm sure he said they're moving to a Crypto Metaverse. Nvidia is a company that moves towards fads, and right now it's AI.
I am pretty sure it is an old email (probably around when they decided stuff about the Turing architecture circa 2016), back when crypto was the big fad, it would be dishonest to say Nvidia was not ahead of the curve with the competition about AI potential or thinking they just jumped on it.

The big legendary paper that launched the trend for the use of transformer for neural network got public in 2017, work around it started around what 2014, Turing with Tensor Core accelerator launched in 2018, they had to pay an early in the field cost, I am sure many saying they are jumping on a fad had in the past said Nvidia was wasting silicon on useless AI stuff between 2018 and 2022.
 
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Go back a few years and I'm sure he said they're moving to a Crypto Metaverse. Nvidia is a company that moves towards fads, and right now it's AI. They're a graphics card company, when the AI fad fades.

It's tough to blame them. It has made them a fabulous amount of money, with very few drawbacks (except for that first time Bitcoin dropped, and they were stuck sitting on an enormous glut of 10-series GPU's they couldn't sell.)

They have built up a business in making a high performance general purpose compute architecture, and then they use that architecture in combination with some last minute tailoring of the underlying arch to chase the popular compute problem du jour.

It used to be they satisfied all of their business segments, but ever since global fab capacity has been unable to meet demand, they have been choosing to focus on the highest margin parts at any given time. It's tough to blame them for that. Every last one of us would do the same if we were selling something. And if you disagree you are probably lying.

That doesn't mean I like it, but it is the way markets work.

I think there are many areas of Nvidias business practices that can be legitimately criticized (lock-ins, lock-outs and other market manipulations) but it's tough to blame them for this.
 
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Problem is he has a psychosis. I would agree if you were describing Elon Musk. But Jensen, just a workaholic.
He has those old-schooled Taiwanese semi-capitalist/communist family oriented mindsets. To me, he's both workaholic and excellent visionary (sharp and cunning as fox) who's willing to go to extreme extent to achieve his goals.

It's safe to say he had achieved what he set out to do from the beginning. Revolutionised and defined the meaning of "GPU" + catapulted Nvidia into a Trillion $ global corporation.
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/market-cap/
7dbad748c55019cf8f8bac185b28e43c.png
 
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RT is much less time consuming for the developer than spending countless hours grinding out shadow maps, etc. and the result is that developers lean heavily on it.

In a way RT was more of a gift to developers than it was to gamers, as it reduced their work and thus costs.
This really is not true right now, or for the forseeable future. The majority of games still ship with visual effects meant for non-RT graphics cards and will continue to do so for a long time. In those games (the majority of games) RT is additional.
 
This really is not true right now, or for the forseeable future. The majority of games still ship with visual effects meant for non-RT graphics cards and will continue to do so for a long time. In those games (the majority of games) RT is additional.
It will start with Unreal 5 lumen first, there at least one case that we saw some Unreal 5 title being Lumen only I think, I feel we saw it with some of those recent Unreal 5, time saving for dev but less optimized for player game trade-off made possible for small studio to do quite impressive stuff.

It was Immortals of Aveum after a quick search, it becomes mostly dark outside very direct light if you turn Lumen off, like if they did not make the alternative baked map and I think you need a mod to test it, the menu do not let you turn RT off.

Will take more time for giant budget non-special RT edition to happen on the PC. I do imagine the 200 millions budget Call of Duty/Red dead affair could continue to evolve and mimic what RT can do quite well, it is more the small team game that could gain a lot from Lumen-RT less pre-baking shortcuts (or the highly dynamically generated or transformable unknown in advance type of game, even from a giant team).
 
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This really is not true right now, or for the forseeable future. The majority of games still ship with visual effects meant for non-RT graphics cards and will continue to do so for a long time. In those games (the majority of games) RT is additional.

It is additional, but they do spend much less time on shadow maps, and reflections in raster than they used to, and it shows.

Modern titles that ship with RT generally tend to just look flatter and less dynamic if you turn RT off than titles used to look right before RT took the market by storm.
 
I believe the same logic applies however. Tesla is not the only company attempting to create a self driving car. I don't believe coming in second in that race is seen as an option by anyone in the race either.

My no second place point is true in every software field.

The first company to build manufacturing robots that can be trained up in an afternoon and just work... win. Overnight that company wins every contract... they believe it. In every sector I can think of where AI is being explored. The first company that has a super AI model to roll out is going to become the dominant market leader. (or at least that is how they all see it)
What you're referring to is first mover advantage. And yes, it gives an advantage. But every major market has competitors that are in it.

Tesla needs competitive advantages right now because companies like BYD is eating their lunch producing cars that are lower cost and competitive in every other area. However even if they perfected autonomous driving tomorrow, it is not as if every person on the planet would buy a Tesla over just any other car.

And that is again an issue with this AI arms race. Yes, it can be used to solve certain things, but it won't just make you magically win the whole market.
They have good reason to believe that. I can't think of one example of a second place anything being successful in tech, at least not without spending even more money (and often breaking a few laws) to force it to happen. You can think of examples like MS word. Ok they where not the first in the market... the first company to deliver was the standard. MS was only able to make word what it became by spending a ton of money and bending more then a few laws to force the first company to the goal out. Google is the prime example of getting there first. Prior to google there where more then a few very good for the time curated search engines... Google built an algorithm which sucked for a long time until it didn't. Once they got that right it was game over for everyone else. Essentially everyone involved with AI at this point is looking at the google example and pushing hard. First place wins they all believe it.
That's great, except by this standard not everyone can win. So it's a zero sum game. And neither I nor you think that that is really true. There's a lot of people including myself that try to limit the Google products we use. And I don't use Microsoft's products really anymore either. And thank God for alternatives.

And this is only talking about the players at the top. Okay great.

How about all these nonsense companies: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanoh...icial-intelligence-companies/?sh=6292445a77cf
Here's another 130: https://www.eweek.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-companies/
Another 61: https://builtin.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-companies-roundup

Are there duplicates? Probably, I'm not going to check, because it's unlikely they're doing anything worth verifying.

You realize that for the third time, what we're talking about here is a bunch of companies that have invested heavily into AI that have no real way of stating how they will profit from it? The problem with your blanket statement is that you can cover a use case for Facebook and Google and maybe even say they're justified in an arms race, but everyone else that isn't remotely trying to do anything that those companies are doing are investing stupid amounts of money into "AI research" as a buzz word without some clear directive of how said research will return money. Cool, Tesla wants autonomous driving. What about everyone else?

You absolutely cannot tell me that every company going full hog into AI now will survive the next 5 years. I'm going to bet that 90% of those AI startups I linked will be dead in that time, and those are supposed to be what Forbes thinks are the most likely to succeed and watch or whatever. There are likely 100's or 1000's that I would have to do some crazy search to find that have had millions of dollars poured into them from venture capital. That's what the AI bubble is. This absolutely cannot last and so until you address the full picture, there is no way you can tell me it will.
 
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Apple didn't stop making Laptops and PC's. Witness the M3 Ultra!

But they're a phone company now. With a lil bitty PC department.


nVidia will keep making the most kick as gfx cards, but it will be a tiny department reusing stuff developed for phones. Datacenters.
Apple will still be a computer company and Nvidia will still be a graphics company. Apple's phone sales dwarf their computer sales, but who's to say that'll always be the situation? Remember when tablets were going to displace PC's, and become the future? Apple was a computer company, who became a portable music player company, then a phone company, then a tablet company, back to a phone company. The tablet thing isn't working out so well. Nvidia went from being a graphics company to a crypto company, to an AI company. All of which is fueled by their graphics development. You will likely see them being a graphics company once again, unless there's another use for GPU's that Nvidia discovers? At which point Intel will also make graphics, and will also take a slice of that pie.
 
I think Nvidia is going back to a graphics company again soon. I know MooCow already noted this, but yea it's a bad sign.
https://twitter.com/TrackInsiders_/status/1729863849354883325
View attachment 617187
The big orders are done, they sold just short of 600,000 H100’s this quarter, the big players have what they need, Blackwell will be slower coming out and heavily constrained because of all the new logistics and such. Q1 and Q2 are highly unlikely to see these sorts of figures.
people buying at these prices aren’t going to come out ahead and Nvidia knows it, sell stock now and buy it back when it comes down in 6 months.
 
Yep gamers will now get the second string parts from Nvidia. Maybe. If Intel ends up being real competition... or AMD actually releases some top tier stuff. Nvidia might just decide its not even worth putting out cast offs and secondary process silicon to actually compete. If there is even a slim possibility Nvidia looses a gaming crown Jensen will just say pull it imo. Better to exit king then be seen as inferior.

I imagine we get super versions of this gen. Then Nvidia is just going to skip next gen silicon in gaming cards. If they bother with gaming cards after that it will be their next chips "super" versions 1.5 years after it goes to data center... if that would keep NV at #1. If it won't keep Nvidia at #1 that silicon will just go to second string accelerators.... designed to fend off potential new cost competition in the AI market.

We better all cheer Intel now.

No they won't. Gaming is still an $8 billion business for Nvidia. What they will do is maintain a high price for GPUs and right-size supply, because the alternative for them is to use the same silicon for much more expensive AI chips. They're not just going to walk away from $8 billion in business though.
 
No they won't. Gaming is still an $8 billion business for Nvidia. What they will do is maintain a high price for GPUs and right-size supply, because the alternative for them is to use the same silicon for much more expensive AI chips. They're not just going to walk away from $8 billion in business though.
The overlap silicon wise however is the issue. 8 Billion is great and all... but if 2 billion of that is chips that could have made them 8 billion had they been put in data center cards the choice is clear.

The question is will Jensen decide that the 6 Billion in the market that is mid range and down cards is still worth putting engineering talent on... as they are also slammed in terms of bodies to keep innovating and pushing on the AI side as well. Jensen is also going to have to consider if he wants to stay in the gaming business if all they are doing is supplying mid range cards (as like it or not the low end is going to get eaten up by Intel and AMD in the form of integrated GPUs... I mean even now Nvidia isn't making cards like 4050s).

This is why I say Nvidia staying in gaming is going to come down to Intel and AMD. If they manage to push their mid range and upper tier to a point where Nvidia has to dip into AI silicon to continue to be seen as the clear #1. IMO Jensen sees 4-6 billion in lost Gaming revenue as worth loosing. It will be replaced with a mid tier AI hardware push with blackwell cast offs (rather then putting them in 4090/80 cards) that is likely to more then replace the revenue. Jensen then gets to walk from gaming saying We left #1 we could have continued to be #1 but we ain't got time for that. I just don't believe his ego would allow him to release a generation of mid tier gaming GPUs that come in second, not when he can easily spin the economics. I don't believe it would be spin... I honestly wonder why they are still bothering with the gaming market when China is sucking up 1/3 of the NV gaming card supply in the world to break down to build mid tier Datacenter parts. Nvidia has been leaving a lot of money on the table the last year or so at least already by not having mid tier AI offerings... all those gaming chips would work quite well for that. Why sell those for 1/4 what they are worth right now just to stay in a gaming market. Take as an example the Nvidia L40 its essentially just a 4090 with double the ram... yet it sells for 10k in the real world. (and Nvidia doesn't have to share profits with vendors) They could just as easilly be selling 4080 maybe even 4070 silicon with double the ram for 6-8k. Staying in gaming is costing Nvidia billions.
 
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