we're in a bit of a strange transition period: graphics card performance requirements are increasing at a steady pace but actual, on-card VRAM quantities are stagnating because of the need to pair chips with a certain bus width and the need of the GPU chip designers to limit the bus width on lower-end cards to avoid larger costs because the memory controllers/interfaces take up large portions of the GPU silicon die.
Taking into account that APIs like DirectStorage could increase VRAM requirements, along with general increases due to higher graphical fidelity and implementations of ray tracing, there appears to be a movement towards requiring higher VRAM quantities, as standard. However, up until the current generation of cards, GDDR6 module capacities are limited to 8 Gb (1 GB) and 16 Gb (2 GB).
http://hole-in-my-head.blogspot.com/2023/01/next-gen-pc-gaming-requirements-2022.html?m=1
Taking into account that APIs like DirectStorage could increase VRAM requirements, along with general increases due to higher graphical fidelity and implementations of ray tracing, there appears to be a movement towards requiring higher VRAM quantities, as standard. However, up until the current generation of cards, GDDR6 module capacities are limited to 8 Gb (1 GB) and 16 Gb (2 GB).
http://hole-in-my-head.blogspot.com/2023/01/next-gen-pc-gaming-requirements-2022.html?m=1
Now, while this is a potential issue for owners of current and prior generation cards, there is a potential solution on the horizon: GDDR6W. This DDR technology allows for modules of up to 32 Gb (4 GB) capacities, meaning that larger capacity modules could be paired with more anaemic memory setups - as is found on lower-end cards.
The issue with this is that it is not certain which memory technology will be applied for the next generation graphics chips. The high-end dies (used for the most expensive graphics cards) will mostly benefit from higher bandwidths - meaning that GDDR7 seems like the more obvious choice for those future releases since it will increase speed up to 36 Gbps from GDDR6's current 16-18 Gbps. (Though, Samsung also announced 24 Gbps speed GDDR6 late last year). Neither GDDR7 or this faster GDDR6 are confirmed to come in higher capacity modules, meaning that if either technology is chosen, the VRAM drought on lower-end cards might not change, unless cards such as the RTX 4050 increase their memory bus to 192 bit but, given that the RTX 4070 Ti is already at a 192 bit bus width, this seems unlikely.
All in all, I think that memory technology and interfaces look like they will be the most interesting facet of PC gaming over the next few years...