If you copy the Oblivion folder in my documents at the very least you can reinstall the game and go from there again. For me I think the issue is a bit different. If I patch, and my saves don't work, F' that. Reinstall from DVD, put my files (preserved in another location) back on. Thing I worry about is after success. Hehe. I'm scared of an all weekend session on the beta patch being lost. The chance isn't greater but as you say you get worried about game saves when changing versions. A failure at the first stage really means nothing to me other than I have to reinstall.
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