The PhysX Endgame-or Why Ageia will win without selling PhysX cards

[superkdogg]

Here's the end-game of this situation that I'm surprised nobody is talking about yet (I'm an experienced user, with good everyday tech knowledge, but I'm admittedly out of my element on theory so maybe this is completely junk and I don't know it-if so tell me why) :

I think that the result of the PhysX movement is going to be Havoc and Nv/ATI working on hardware-acceleration of physics on GPU's (or their sexay-named new GPU-like cards). With the programmable nature of today's GPU's and the power available in said GPU's, I'm thinking that the current HavokFX and whatever ATI proposes are simply a stepping stone to full-on hardware acceleration on GPU's. There's also the alternative of ATI and NV offerring their own physics cards that use a new Havok API that allows for a different version of physics (one that does not exist yet) but still includes hardware acceleration. In the process, one or both of the big teams buys intellectual property rights from Ag and effectively ends the company's hardware efforts, but continues development of the technology and integrates it into future implementations. It's win-win-win for everybody as ATI and Nv get new market, Ag's venture capital pays off in the sale, consumers get hardware accelerated physics, dev's get another toy to play with and it's uniform across the board rather than two different standards, and everybody lives happily ever after.

I think that this is a logical outcome, but again, I'm no guru-what do you all think?

 

[eastvillager]

It seems to me that the games that can benefit most from PhysX processing are also the games that feature a solid multiplayer component. A component that just isn't going to work with PhysX processing for anything other than eyecandy.


Think about the netcode that could handle a stream of shell casings falling from the minigun on a blackhawk and physically bouncing off of a squad below the copter. Make that work in a 64 player game of BF2 with current bandwidth, lol.

Either the server has to handle all of that and send updates to all hosts, or you have to "trust" all of your hosts to figure it out on their own, and for all the hosts to come up with the same calculations with very little perceived lag from one host to another.

 

[MrNasty]

Except once again it's a red vs. green war.

I guess at least then all the fans will know where they stand and the endless hyping flame war can continue

I don't think I'm the only one that sees physics as a brand new area of hardware and software development which will finally compete for attention with ridiculous e-peen products like the GX2 - and hopefully bring the PC gaming arena back down to earth because gamers will have 2 ways to split their money for immersion - physics and graphics. Why else do you think NV/ATi are selling GPU physics so hard? They want people to buy 2 top end graphics cards and have even more reason to buy quad sli / octuplefire setups.

Please, no more ridiculous X's in product names and the endless graphics speed war with silly top-end products that don't have their brand new "features" realised until the next generation of video cards is out.

 

[dotK]

Please, no more ridiculous X's in product names

You mean you don't want some Xtreme Apple Jaxxx?

 

[Sly]

The PhysX Endgame-or Why Ageia will win without selling PhysX cards

I've already brought this up. Multiple times.

If they do as you say, they'll literally starve to death. The API is free, and unless they hire out their development staff, then their technical support is also free. The only source of funds is the sale of the PPU. You can't support a company with no income.

As i've said multiple times, even if the API becomes widespread, the hardware PPU is a niche market within a niche market.

 

[MrNasty]

You mean you don't want some Xtreme Apple Jaxxx?

OMG they sound fawesome!!! gimme gimme gimme!

Only $20 each for 1500 times the apple flipping flava?! ZOMGBBQARGAIN!!

/cue Hip-hop rap commercials:

I got the zingiest, tingiest, jaxxin' apples,

Get some o dat fresh fly flava,

comin back from the edge of reality,

I score some Jaxxx on a minor technicality,

Zoooooo-wooop!

Xtreme Apple JAXXX - Put the Maxxx in Your Slaxxx

 

[superkdogg]

I've already brought this up. Multiple times.

If they do as you say, they'll literally starve to death. The API is free, and unless they hire out their development staff, then their technical support is also free. The only source of funds is the sale of the PPU. You can't support a company with no income.

As i've said multiple times, even if the API becomes widespread, the hardware PPU is a niche market within a niche market.

But you're referencing existing API's. I'm saying either a re-worked API will be developed or the intellectual rights to the hardware PPUs is sold to Nv and ATI. Basically that this story ends in Nvidia and ATI buying the ability to integrate hardware accelerated physics into games and that the PPU becomes widespread, but Ageia is this evolution's ancestor not an evolutionary end in itself.

BTW, those making the "niche market" argument are probably being short-sighted imo. The precendent of the video card has been set and demonstrated that users will invest in "niche" equipment if it gives them a better gaming experience.

Another possibility not to be overlooked that would facilitate the wide integration that spurs on developers to actually use this technology is that if ATI and NV had the capability to manufacture a PPU like Ageia has out right now, it could potentially be integrated onto high-end enthusiast motherboards via PCI-e. Now before you tell me it's cost-prohitive consider that the current $300 PPU includes the early adopter penalty, limited production, relatively large manufacturing process and current niche status. Also keep in mind that current top-of-the-line motherboards are no longer $125, but rather twice that amount. There is room to integrate a PPU into a motherboard if there is a reason to do so. I do readily admit that there is no reason right now, I'm just throwing this possiblity out for conjecture.

I'm more or less wondering out loud about the future of the PPU and the more I wonder, the more I keep coming back to ATI and Nvidia being the big fish that eats the little fish and in turn get bigger. Then the biggest consumers (enthusiasts) put out their boats and catch the even bigger fish (ATI/NV PPUs) and put them inside their rigs.

 

[magoo]

So,it's really Phy$x....
We'll have to wait and see.
I like thatt Jaxxxx in your slacks jingle.
Superdogg I like your reasoning.

 

[PhyberOptic]

/cue Hip-hop rap commercials:

I got the zingiest, tingiest, jaxxin' apples,
Get some o dat fresh fly flava,
comin back from the edge of reality,
I score some Jaxxx on a minor technicality,
Zoooooo-wooop!
Xtreme Apple JAXXX - Put the Maxxx in Your Slaxxx

LMFAO!

I'm from South Africa, and I avoid my television, so thankfully I'm spared much of that hip hop rap guff, but your post made me laugh out loud! Thanks for that!

Whether ageia wins or loses, the customer wins, because the state of the art is advanced, regardless.

I'd like to see cheaper video cards, first, though.

 

[Frosteh]

Except once again it's a red vs. green war.

Hmmm... more of an Nvidia does something and ATI makes a cheap copy war?

Just like with SLI, Nvidia invests in something designs it well and produces a decent outcome, ATI copy last minute and it's inevitibly worse.

That aside I think physics on the GPU might not be a massive step forwards, in most standard medium to high end gaming rigs (not extreme SLI/crossfire ones) the GPU is the bottleneck with games not the CPU, unless you have an exceptionally CPU heavy game.

I just see offloading physics calculations onto a video card causing slow downs in frame rate and ultimatly not being worth it, SLI rigs are a good idea but in most cases the 2nd video card would be more expensive than a PPU and would for a lot of people mean an upgrade to an SLI motherboard.

Something thats often forgotten on these forums is that not every user has uber rigs, only a very tiny fraction of all gamers have SLI rigs.

I don't see how its more of an elogant solution than a PPU

 

[superkdogg]

Maybe I wasn't clear in the OP, but I think that neither the Ageia PPU, nor HavocFX is going to stand the test of time but that ATI and Nvidia will either purchase the Ageia intellectual property behind the PPU or develop their own new PPU's.

I'm suggesting that when this all shakes out by say mid-08, there are red and green hardware PPU's and Ageia is profitable based on developing this product but actually no longer exists except to rake in royalties.

 

[Terra]

I don't see how its more of an elogant solution than a PPU

It's a hack IHMO.
They are trying(and with some success) to gain PR over PhysX.
NVIDA/ATI smells money(new market)...Havok is just scared of going out of buisnees.

Terra - I like that Havok fired first at Agiea...shows just how much they fear AGEIA.

 

[Terra]

Maybe I wasn't clear in the OP, but I think that neither the Ageia PPU, nor HavocFX is going to stand the test of time but that ATI and Nvidia will either purchase the Ageia intellectual property behind the PPU or develop their own new PPU's.

I'm suggesting that when this all shakes out by say mid-08, there are red and green hardware PPU's and Ageia is profitable based on developing this product but actually no longer exists except to rake in royalties.

So far NVIDA has mustered with Havok and ATI is working on their own solution.
So that pretty much ruins your prediction.

Terra...

 

[GoldenTiger]

Hmmm... more of an Nvidia does something and ATI makes a cheap copy war?

Just like with SLI, Nvidia invests in something designs it well and produces a decent outcome, ATI copy last minute and it's inevitibly worse.

That aside I think physics on the GPU might not be a massive step forwards, in most standard medium to high end gaming rigs (not extreme SLI/crossfire ones) the GPU is the bottleneck with games not the CPU, unless you have an exceptionally CPU heavy game.

I just see offloading physics calculations onto a video card causing slow downs in frame rate and ultimatly not being worth it, SLI rigs are a good idea but in most cases the 2nd video card would be more expensive than a PPU and would for a lot of people mean an upgrade to an SLI motherboard.

Something thats often forgotten on these forums is that not every user has uber rigs, only a very tiny fraction of all gamers have SLI rigs.

I don't see how its more of an elogant solution than a PPU

Another thing to consider is why would you want to pay extra for an integrated PPU on a video card, then have to pay again for the SAME PPU on the video card again every time you upgrade the video card, which is a fairly regular upgrade for many on these forums? With it being a seperate card, you pay once and you're good until/unless you ever want to upgrade it.

 

[GoldenTiger]

OMG they sound fawesome!!! gimme gimme gimme!

Only $20 each for 1500 times the apple flipping flava?! ZOMGBBQARGAIN!!
/cue Hip-hop rap commercials:
I got the zingiest, tingiest, jaxxin' apples,
Get some o dat fresh fly flava,
comin back from the edge of reality,
I score some Jaxxx on a minor technicality,
Zoooooo-wooop!
Xtreme Apple JAXXX - Put the Maxxx in Your Slaxxx

The ROFLcopter has landed, I repeat, the ROFLcopter has landed!

 

[Frosteh]

Another thing to consider is why would you want to pay extra for an integrated PPU on a video card, then have to pay again for the SAME PPU on the video card again every time you upgrade the video card, which is a fairly regular upgrade for many on these forums? With it being a seperate card, you pay once and you're good until/unless you ever want to upgrade it.

Exactly, gamers aren't stupid, more gamers now a days are building their own rigs to get exactly what they want, and more thinking goes into futureproofing that it ever did.

As I said in another thread...

SLI based solution for me would be £300 for another 7800 GTX 256, then another £100 for a decent SLI motherboard (since I dont have one atm)

Or I can spend £220 on a PPU (which will drop when more than 1 place is selling them in the UK)

The PPU card I can move to another system when I upgrade and it wont cost me anything.

The more I think about it the more I'm convinced that Ageia have come up with an incredibly good business model, sure it's going to be slow to take off but when it does it's going to outclass the competition easily. And of course Havok took a swing, their business model was just crushed, people can no get a free licence to use Ageia physics engine in their game rather than shelling out a bucket load, and then have the option to further intergrate additional physics later which require PPU support.

I might be wrong here but I'm fairly sure the free licence runs in "software" on the CPU meaning it currently steps up to what havok does, but for free.

Why would anyone want to be using the havok engine right now, its expensive and it's going to be harder to move towards newer more advanced physics which uses dedicated hardware.