Nvidia shares soar nearly 30% as sales forecast jumps on 4060 Ti beat

HockeyJon said:
Well first of all, they're not even close to being worth more than Apple, Intel, and Amazon combined. They're not even close to being worth more than Apple.

I'm also not an analyst and this isn't advice, but that's exactly what makes stock picking such a challenge. Tesla didn't make sense to hold for many years as it continued its run. At one point, it was worth more than every other major automaker combined despite selling a small fraction of the cars. Humans tell themselves stories, and in Tesla's case, it seemed to be that they were the future, no one else was going to make EVs like they can (or at all, based on valuation), it's a proxy for Elon Musk's other companies like SpaceX, it wasn't a car company because it's a tech company, etc. Part of that was fueled as well by cheap money, but that's another story. The point was that Tesla made no sense to own as it increased 10x in value and absolutely obliterated short sellers who did normal analyst things like discounted cash flow analysis and reading balance sheets.

Zoom is another good example, where it was worth more than Exxon Mobile at one point during the pandemic, because we all know how hard it is to compete with chat software if you're, I dunno, Microsoft or something. No one was ever going to return to the office ever again, and therefore Zoom should be worth a bazillion dollars because Microsoft will never put out teams and bundle it with their office suite or anything like that.

So here we have Nvidia. Does the valuation make sense? Considering it's like 200x training earnings right now and something like 86x forward earnings. A lot appears to be priced in. The next question is will anyone care? As of now, it doesn't look that way. Fund managers will now have to explain to clients why they don't own Nvidia right now if they don't currently have it, so some will buy it just to be in. We have a general AI frenzy right now and Nvidia is leading the charge with that. Just like with Tesla, none of the traditional valuation metrics probably matter in the face of human psychology and our ability to tell each other stories regardless of the facts on the ground.

All that said, Nvidia is the real deal when it comes to AI, and they are going to be a dominant force in the present and future of computing. They're way ahead of the competition in an emerging field. What is that worth? No idea. Is it worth what they're selling for now? Maybe. What am I doing with my shares? I dunno.
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Do you use technical analysis or anything related to algorithmic trading strategies?

 
erek said:
Do you use technical analysis or anything related to algorithmic trading strategies?

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I'm not nearly that sophisticated, but I am aware of what they are and how they work. I tend to target things for the long term and don't make a whole lot of changes to my positions unless I feel there is a good reason to do so.
 
HockeyJon said:
I'm not nearly that sophisticated, but I am aware of what they are and how they work. I tend to target things for the long term and don't make a whole lot of changes to my positions unless I feel there is a good reason to do so.
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If you every get a chance, try out that Elliot Wave principle from a macroeconomic standpoint to guide your picks
 
HeadRusch said:
From underground comedy to prescient documentary.....
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You should click that button.

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I think this gentlemen summed up Nvidia well here on the jump, maybe hyperbola with AI:

 
TMCM said:
NVDA has a p/e of about 200. I'd say that is pretty high. How's blockchain and the metaverse, which were all the rage just a short bit ago, doing these days?
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Equity valuations for tech stocks have completely detached from reality and exceed the Dot Com bubble valuations. This is an infamous statement made by the CEO of Sun Microsystems (Scott McNealy) to Bloomberg in 2002 when the company had a PE ratio of 10:

At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?
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Nvidia total revenue has actually gone backwards but yet genius investors and hedge funds now reckon that AI is the panacea that will allow the company to keep increasing profit in the face of a potentially massive recession which is on the horizon (not to mention the deflationary force which could be unleashed if AI exacerbates unemployment).
 
What good is anything that Nvidia really builds if China wants the A100 for weapon systems to kill Americans, it's like investing in your own death and your profits was to help buy your last supper.
 
Blade-Runner said:
Equity valuations for tech stocks have completely detached from reality and exceed the Dot Com bubble valuations. This is an infamous statement made by the CEO of Sun Microsystems (Scott McNealy) to Bloomberg in 2002 when the company had a PE ratio of 10:



Nvidia total revenue has actually gone backwards but yet genius investors and hedge funds now reckon that AI is the panacea that will allow the company to keep increasing profit in the face of a potentially massive recession which is on the horizon (not to mention the deflationary force which could be unleashed if AI exacerbates unemployment).
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It's not shocking that Nvidia is investing in AI. It is shocking to read when ppl think it's nothing.
 
pavel said:
It's not shocking that Nvidia is investing in AI. It is shocking to read when ppl think it's nothing.
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Sky net is real, cat's like to play with the prey = better the kill, says the Reaper flying above your head playing by weak rules in place and soon it may not need anyone as a co-pilot.
 
pavel said:
You better check if you forgot your meds. I guess I'm reminded why I don't venture out of the hardware threads coming here.
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They don't have meds for someone that was found dead and only bought back to life so they can medical bill me to death, I am not the one that needs your BS meds, I understand a clown prefect.
 
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Meeho said:
Yes, it's the new darling, the new bubble fuel.
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Can be hard to distinguish bubble and fad, Internet in the 90s had a bubble that busted, turned out not to be a fad at all, was just that it was google and not Cat.com or Yahoo, I imagine many mobile and social media bubble popped, was not a fad.

Most of the bubbles will busts, will user want a more natural way to interact with computer system, will company want to cut cost and use computer system to do customer service, generate sound-music-2d-3d models for entertainment, will database combined with expertise continue to have machine learning run on them from mining to pharma, yes.

In 2050 computer system that use what we call artificial intelligence will be around (like they were since the 90s), it is really not a case of a technology in search of a problem to solve. One big unknown is where-when-by who the money will be and how much it will turn out in banal commodity that run "free" on a simple smarthphone
 
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