Intel's Manufacturing Outlook for the Future Doesn't Inspire Confidence in Successful Competition, According to Susquehanna Call

erek

erek

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“Improved yields on 10 nm are being reported due to deployment of Intel's SuperFin technology, which improved yields to upwards of 50%, but still keeps them under the ones achieved in Intel's 14 nm process; an eye-opening tidbit in that Cannon Lake on 10 nm originally saw yields of only 25% usable chips per wafer; and that backporting Rocket Lake meant Intel had to deal with unfathomably large chips and high power consumption characteristics. And to add insult to injury, there is still not a definite timetable for 7 nm deployment, with delays being expected to be worse than the previously reported 6-12 months. This all paints a somewhat grim picture for Intel's capacity to compete with TSMC-powered AMD in many of its most important markets; the blue giant won't topple, of course, but it's expected that five years from now, we'll be looking at a very different outlook in the market between AMD and Intel. You can check the talked-about points in the call via the transcript after the break. You should still take the transcript with a grain of salt.”

https://www.techpowerup.com/276090/...ful-competition-according-to-susquehanna-call
 
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They have to be working on 7nm right?

There's no way they are spending all their time and resources on 10nm still.

From the second article.

Production outsourcing issues:

  • Intel is going to outsource CPUs, but what and where is still being debated internally. Final decisions will be made in Q1 2021 between Samsung Semiconductor and TSMC for different products.
  • “Intel won't outsource everything to TSMC because TSMC doesn't have the capacity. Intel grabbing capacity shouldn't take capacity away from AMD - TSMC should prioritise customers with long-term plans to stay with them.”
Oh my.
 
Yeah Intel has a combo of severe management issues and too big to adapt. It may just prove fatal.
 
If you can't ever get 10nm right, you sure as hell not going to do 7nm very well either.
 
Master_shake_ said:
They have to be working on 7nm right?

There's no way they are spending all their time and resources on 10nm still.

From the second article.

Production outsourcing issues:

  • Intel is going to outsource CPUs, but what and where is still being debated internally. Final decisions will be made in Q1 2021 between Samsung Semiconductor and TSMC for different products.
  • “Intel won't outsource everything to TSMC because TSMC doesn't have the capacity. Intel grabbing capacity shouldn't take capacity away from AMD - TSMC should prioritise customers with long-term plans to stay with them.”
Oh my.
Click to expand...


This news post suggested that their 7nm process is having issues as well.

I used to be of the opinion that it was only a matter of time until Intel would come roaring back with a functioning process. After all manufacturing process excellence used to be their thing, right? They had the best process in the industry for decades.

Someone may have screwed up 10nm - I thought - but they have interleaving generational projects with alternate teams (10nm development started ~halfway through 14nm development. 7nm started ~halfway through 10nm, etc) so even if 10nm is a complete loss it would only be a matter of them holding out until 7nm.

If 7nm is a problem too, I'm starting to have serious concerns about Intel and the industry.

Don't get me wrong. I am no Intel fan. I feel like over the decades they have done some seriously shitty and illegal things, and I consider them - along with Nvidia - as one of the "bad players" in the industry, but no one should be cheering for their demise.

They could do what AMD did. Get out of manufacturing, and farm out the production of their designs to TSMC and Samsung, but that takes a HUGE proportion of the worlds bleeding edge production out of the equation. TSMC and Samsung can't keep up with demand as it is. Now increase that demand by 1.5 - 2x and see what happens to the industry.

AMD has a long history of being better behaved than the alternatives, with more transparency and none of the illegal business practices, but an industry where AMD is dominant will be no better than the industry in which Intel was dominant. Inflated pricing, supply issues, etc. etc.

The best we can all hope for is that Intel whips 7nm in shape in a timely fashion and can actually manufacture competitive parts again. The alternative is pretty grim.
 
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intel.png


Sorry i was bored :oops:
 
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erek said:
did they ever get 14nm+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ right, yet? Mega6
Click to expand...
Afaik, their 14nm is fine. Broadwell and Skylake were decent, but the problem is they just keep adding pluses and stupider code names, and maybe smashing in some more cores, but no real architecture improvements because the design teams are all working on 10nm designs that they can't ship because of fab issues.

At some point, management should have noticed that 10 nm is fucked, and shifted at least some of their cpu design pipeline back to 14nm. Now they're saying in Q1, they'll decide what fab to outsource to, and my guess is it's 18 months after that before anything ships (unless they've been working on this for a while and not said anything).

There was a chance that 7nm would work out and they'd get back on track, but looks like that's pretty iffy too, at this point.
 
Too bad Intel did not take other parallel options such as working with GF 7nm process, help fund 7nm foundary with exclusive access to process and or license to use. That is if it was as ready as indicated. Not sure GF 5nm progress at the time.

Anyways even if Intel magically got 10nm working, it would probably be too little too late. AMD should be on 5nm 2022.

Samsung, another option maybe in licensing their process like what GF did with 14nm process.
 
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