Anyone think this guy is right?

Whoops, looks like this was already mentioned in the RTX3XXX performance speculation thread....
 
Yeah, apparently performance speculation actually covers totally everything 3 series related and making a thread outside of it that has been mentioned in its 81 pages will be closed by a mod very passive agrressivley... So yeah. Read every 81 pages I guess!
 
This line from that page should be a dead giveaway:

> In June, Igor’s Lab ran a story alleging he had sources confirming the Founders Edition coolers cost more than $150 to manufacture. My source concurs with Igor

Even if one were to accept the rest of the twaddle, there is nothing in the cooling capacity that would justify such a high cost.
 
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I don't know enough about the industry to know if this makes sense or not. However, Old Bennett hinted that there could be some truth to the article in the performance thread, so there's that.

Old Bennett needs to just realize he loves this tech journalist stuff too much to retire, and get back to it.
 
SeymourGore said:
I don't know enough about the industry to know if this makes sense or not. However, Old Bennett hinted that there could be some truth to the article in the performance thread, so there's that.

Old Bennett needs to just realize he loves this tech journalist stuff too much to retire, and get back to it.
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That would be great for us, still it is a business that needs to sustain itself and blossom. The way of most if not all tech sites now are not even in the same league as a decade ago and especially the 90's and early 2000's, the Las Vegas add flashing strips, accidental click takes you to lala land, constant migrating text as new adds pop up is disgusting but seems only viable way for them to keep their doors open. Which does not seem long before they close. That is not even remotely addressing the content garbage now. YouTube only has a few dedicated reviewers that I would trust. Appreciate and respect that Old Bennett did not go down that rabbit hole. A real quality, paid by members, (I don't like subscriptions though) unique [H]ard [H]itting facts, innovative pushing and not tainted by any organization with real trust and only a few earned advertisers allowed to list in the club, with undisputed reputation 2nd to none.

As for this guy is right, seems like he has some good sources, really he has over and over again mentions that he talks to Adorned TV, RedgamingTech, Coretek others, which maybe more of a team effort in filtering out the garbage. I would say he has been in the ball park.
 
Last I checked businesses are trying to deliver on all fronts and it's still a free market society so if that sort of business strategy bothers you then perhaps your money would be better spent with a company that better meets your sensibility.
 
learners permit said:
Last I checked businesses are trying to deliver on all fronts and it's still a free market society so if that sort of business strategy bothers you then perhaps your money would be better spent with a company that better meets your sensibility.
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huh? lol
 
Laffles said:
Yeah, apparently performance speculation actually covers totally everything 3 series related and making a thread outside of it that has been mentioned in its 81 pages will be closed by a mod very passive agrressivley... So yeah. Read every 81 pages I guess!
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The Fury X thread was like 300 pages back in 2015. We used the same thread for like a year and a half.
 
I beleive there is at least some truth. How much, who knows. If you see FE cards sold out and AIBs going for > MSRP... that's not proof, as this has happened to all manufacturers in recent memory (intel, amd, nvidia). If 3rd party benchmarks come out and AIB cards over MSRP are slower than FE cards and FE cards don't come back in stock for a really long time, then that is pretty much confirmation that this was NVIDIA's play all along. Most people will have already made their purchases at this point based on the FE benchmarks and never know or care. Unfortunately, by the time anyone knows if this is indeed true, we won't be talking about ampere anymore and the official 1st wave benchmarks/prices are what everyone will be basing their purchases decisions on and what AMD will be competing against, whether or not they represent the norm. It's like when manufacturers "used to" give golden samples to reviewers so they looked like they were going to be great at overclocking (or temperature, power, PSU line load/efficiency, etc), then OEM parts where not seeing near as good, but most people don't have the equipment to even verify.
 
I’d say most would have NOT made their purchase since cards will be OOS quite quickly and would be stuck with more expensive AIBs they don’t perform as well. The only way this strategy is of any benefit is if most buyers have t actually bought yet and only have AIB as an option.
 
Kid744 said:
Fake shortage coming

I am not normally one to read conspiracy theories, but this sounds a bit scary (with the distinct chance some of it may be true)

I would like to hear what [H]ard folks think of this theory.

Kid
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I have been watching this market for over 20 years and I think there is a lot of merit to what MLID is saying. I think he is close to 100% right. The whole FE cooler price, I think confused some people in his messaging.

The problem with explaining a lot of what is happening is that most people do not have good understanding of how the channel works from A to Z. So they claim BS while not comprehending the complete story. There is a lot of minutiae to dig down into that is often not discussed publicly, so unless you have access to industry resources, you would simply would not understand the complete story. I have already seen this on our forum over and over.
 
Basically this dude will claim he's right as long as there's a shortage, fake or not.

/Shrug
 
Auer said:
Basically this dude will claim he's right as long as there's a shortage, fake or not.

/Shrug
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Not sure what that has to do with anything. The entire point of the article is to point out that SEP prices pushed by NVIDIA are not going to be realistic going forward past the initial launch. Leaked pricing we have seen this weekend, points to all that being true.
 
It doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility to me. I think cards will sell out either way, but it's hard to say how long the "shortage" will last.
 
FrgMstr said:
Not sure what that has to do with anything. The entire point of the article is to point out that SEP prices pushed by NVIDIA are not going to be realistic going forward past the initial launch. Leaked pricing we have seen this weekend, points to all that being true.
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New tech releases with pent up demand always have shortages and rising prices. We don't need conspiracy theories for that to happen.

When supplies run short, it isn't proof of said conspiracy theory, just the normal case of demand that exceeds supply, that even happened for some tiers of Turing cards that apparently most people here hated.

It's quite obvious that this release is going to generate demand well above Turing, so it will be MUCH harder to get Ampere cards.
 
Snowdog said:
New tech releases with pent up demand always have shortages and rising prices. We don't need conspiracy theories for that to happen.

When supplies run short, it isn't proof of said conspiracy theory, just the normal case of demand that exceeds supply, that even happened for some tiers of Turing cards that apparently most people here hated.

It's quite obvious that this release is going to generate demand well above Turing, so it will be MUCH harder to get Ampere cards.
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And this right here is the ignorance I spoke about above. You are not considering the entire argument. You are taking one small slice that you can understand and applying it to the entire channel and how products are sold and priced. Care to address the analysis he did no BOM pricing and how that will impact the channel and final selling price?

Listen to this section again in his video.

 
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he is close to the truth here. My line of thinking is that you either get the 3080 FE card or wait and get the AIB 20 GB cards. I don’t have a great feeling about the AIB 10 GB cards to be honest. They will not be as cheap as the FE and more of a filler until the 20 GB cards come out.
 
CoreStoffer said:
I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he is close to the truth here. My line of thinking is that you either get the 3080 FE card or wait and get the AIB 20 GB cards. I don’t have a great feeling about the AIB 10 GB cards to be honest. They will not be as cheap as the FE and more of a filler until the 20 GB cards come out.
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I think this is absolutely correct. NVIDIA has strategically built in an artificial MSRP/SEP pricing scheme that will be successful, and "all" of the embargo day reviews will reflect a glowing value for a product that will never truly be accessible to be consumers. This is what is at the heart of his analysis.
 
FrgMstr said:
I think this is absolutely correct. NVIDIA has strategically built in an artificial MSRP/SEP pricing scheme that will be successful, and "all" of the embargo day reviews will reflect a glowing value for a product that will never truly be accessible to be consumers. This is what is at the heart of his analysis.
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We understand what’s at the heart of the analysis. It’s whether or not it makes sense or is believable thats the debate.
 
FrgMstr said:
I think this is absolutely correct. NVIDIA has strategically built in an artificial MSRP/SEP pricing scheme that will be successful, and "all" of the embargo day reviews will reflect a glowing value for a product that will never truly be accessible to be consumers. This is what is at the heart of his analysis.
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Yes, that essentially sums up the video and article. I take it to mean that the FE will not be available for purchase at MSRP on Nvidia's store except for the first few days after launch.

Time will tell.
 
If it is true does it really change anything? Nvidia has the entire high end market until October/November. Anyone who cares about value will probably wait until Big Navi is out, anyone who wants a card now will pay.

Also the statement will be hard to prove either way so it does just seem to be a click generator unless we can get FE sold number vs AIB and compare it to other launches which I doubt is possible. So he is essentially just tossing out a theory to generate views which may be true, may not but after launch he will just move on to another topic to generate views.
 
Meh. If I can't get my hands on a 3080 for MSRP, I'll likely buy a PS5 instead. Save a bit of cash and play some different games.
 
BassTek said:
If it is true does it really change anything? Nvidia has the entire high end market until October/November. Anyone who cares about value will probably wait until Big Navi is out, anyone who wants a card now will pay.

Also the statement will be hard to prove either way so it does just seem to be a click generator unless we can get FE sold number vs AIB and compare it to other launches which I doubt is possible. So he is essentially just tossing out a theory to generate views which may be true, may not but after launch he will just move on to another topic to generate views.
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But he has sources backup up a lot of what he is saying. It's not like he is pulling the details out of his ass. Remember he has been spot on about Ampere for over 4-5 months now? I highly doubt he is just guessing with this.
 
Considering the history HardOCP has with Nvidia, how do we know they are not biased towards AMD?

I have already decided to order both €780 3080 FE and €975 3080 Strix. Hopefully, I received at least one of them. If I get both, I'll just sell the worse card. Probably not gonna lose any money either.
 
Brackle said:
But he has sources backup up a lot of what he is saying. It's not like he is pulling the details out of his ass. Remember he has been spot on about Ampere for over 4-5 months now? I highly doubt he is just guessing with this.
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Yes but what does it change? Are you going to not buy a card at launch because they might have set the FE price artificially low? The OP said he was 'scared' of the news? Scared of what? Paying too much for a card?

It seems like this is a theory which can't be proven which is perfect click bait. If FE cards are scarce which will likely be true either way then MLID looks like a genius without any effort. Win win for him, he gets views without real proof and continues on growing his channel.

The real thing that would scare me is that maybe Nvidia is making a play to push the AIB vendors out by pricing them out of the market. This could lead to them being the only source for their GPUs in the future similar to Apple. A shortage that lasts a month to drive up prices until competition arrives doesn't seem to be a big deal.
 
BassTek said:
Yes but what does it change? Are you going to not buy a card at launch because they might have set the FE price artificially low? The OP said he was 'scared' of the news? Scared of what? Paying too much for a card?

It seems like this is a theory which can't be proven which is perfect click bait. If FE cards are scarce which will likely be true either way then MLID looks like a genius without any effort. Win win for him, he gets views without real proof and continues on growing his channel.

The real thing that would scare me is that maybe Nvidia is making a play to push the AIB vendors out by pricing them out of the market. This could lead to them being the only source for their GPUs in the future similar to Apple. A shortage that lasts a month to drive up prices until competition arrives doesn't seem to be a big deal.
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A lot changes if true. Not everyone who wants one will be quick enough to get one on launch. So if true what changes is the price everyone who didn’t get one will have to pay and whether or not they’ll even be able to get an FE model at all.
 
RamonGTP said:
A lot changes if true. Not everyone who wants one will be quick enough to get one on launch. So if true what changes is the price everyone who didn’t get one will have to pay and whether or not they’ll even be able to get an FE model at all.
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Isn't that the case for every product launch though? Nvidia isn't forcing you to overpay for an AIB card way above MSRP. I don't see how a low FE MSRP makes them sinister. Just wait until competition arrives.
 
BassTek said:
Yes but what does it change? Are you going to not buy a card at launch because they might have set the FE price artificially low? The OP said he was 'scared' of the news? Scared of what? Paying too much for a card?

It seems like this is a theory which can't be proven which is perfect click bait. If FE cards are scarce which will likely be true either way then MLID looks like a genius without any effort. Win win for him, he gets views without real proof and continues on growing his channel.

The real thing that would scare me is that maybe Nvidia is making a play to push the AIB vendors out by pricing them out of the market. This could lead to them being the only source for their GPUs in the future similar to Apple. A shortage that lasts a month to drive up prices until competition arrives doesn't seem to be a big deal.
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Basically it shows that the FE cards marked the MSRP are probably the ONLY cards that will be at the MSRP, and that most of the AIB cards will be overpriced and no where near as good as the FE cards. Because he is right everyone will go back to look at day 1 reviews thinking thats the card they are getting when they buy from EVGA or MSI etc etc.

TBH it isn't going to stop me from trying to get a 3080/3090. It just means Nvidia is being shady, and it doesn't come as a shock to me. But, it will probably upset a lot of people if this becomes true is all.
 
BassTek said:
Isn't that the case for every product launch though? Nvidia isn't forcing you to overpay for an AIB card way above MSRP. I don't see how a low FE MSRP makes them sinister. Just wait until competition arrives.
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The conspiracy theory seems to be that once the first batch of FE cards are sold out from nVidia you’ll never see them again. If they come back in stock then I’m with you.
 
RamonGTP said:
The conspiracy theory seems to be that once the first batch of FE cards are sold out from nVidia you’ll never see them again. If they come back in stock then I’m with you.
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Well that is NOT what he said either, but you keep making up your own "facts" about what he represented.
 
Maybe its because I don't fixate on the obvious, but, its obvious it doesn't take a rocket scientist to come up with the theory. Its been this way for years, buy cheap at release, cheap cards disappear, people bitch "unfair" its nothing new, I'm not sure why everyone is acting like this is some new policy or scam lol.

Like does no one remember the 970? I'm pretty sure that's when the shit started or it became "obvious".
 
Brackle said:
Basically it shows that the FE cards marked the MSRP are probably the ONLY cards that will be at the MSRP, and that most of the AIB cards will be overpriced and no where near as good as the FE cards. Because he is right everyone will go back to look at day 1 reviews thinking thats the card they are getting when they buy from EVGA or MSI etc etc.

TBH it isn't going to stop me from trying to get a 3080/3090. It just means Nvidia is being shady, and it doesn't come as a shock to me. But, it will probably upset a lot of people if this becomes true is all.
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I guess I don't see the outrage. Older launches had crappy FE cards priced higher than MSRP and AIB cards were priced to demand.

Now we have a good FE cards priced at MSRP and AIB cards priced to demand.

Seems like a better situation even if the FE is hard to get.
 
Some good followup on the MSRP story at the very beginning of this video from yesterday, just watched that. Only a couple minutes long, so not a lot of time needed.

 
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